Equities for the most part, still aren’t moving very much. After breaking to new highs since early June early last week, this based for most of the week before having one big drop on Thursday. Since then, it’s been basing in a small range again. Maybe today will be another meaningful move day? If so, I hope I’m on the right side — I’m going to take the baskets at face value since the volatility is low and the correlations have been somewhat iffy.
USD – S – This pushed down on Monday — and broke some support — and yesterday made a new low under Mondays, but ended up finishing right near the open (it pushed a bit higher too, but about half as much as it dropped Monday). Today, it’s gotten as low as yesterday, and has pushed slightly up, but looking weak. If this can break out of the day’s lows. This should be a good short. I’ve been burned before. I’ll take a look at individual charts (and try not to do something like short USD/JPY…
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Long
EUR/USD – Long
CAD – N – This made a new low on Monday, but failed to do so yesterday, and today’s it’s up a bit. CAD has been very strange as of late, and it’s not in a place where I feel comfortable playing it. Once this gets back to the lows from Monday, I’ll look to short it, but not right now
EUR – L/N – This had a lot of strength behind it starting last Wednesday when it broke the range it had been in since mid-April(!). It ran up from then until yesterday when it dropped .4%. Today, it’s up slightly but not a ton. If this is a bull pullback (which I suspect it is), I’ll want to enter this at a tradable place. I’ll take a look at individual charts
GBP – N – I’m not going to be this reactive with GBP today. This has been ranging and choppy for a long time, and over the last almost 5 months it’s been in a downtrend. It has pushed up above the trend-line I’m seeing and the MAs are starting to slope upward, but I want to wait for more confirmation before pulling the trigger here
JPY – N – After being up for the last 4 trading days in a row, this looks like it’s stalling out. It hasn’t moved much anyway, but it’s sitting right at it’s open. If this can push up out of yesterday’s highs (which today’s highs aren’t too far away from) this could be a decent long play — though I’m not sure why I’m comfortable taking this long and not GBP… You know what, I’m not. I’m going to leave this alone and actually, maybe, short this off of the top of it’s range. I’ll revisit that idea later if I don’t like anything else today, so in the meantime, I’ll just hold off here
AUD – L/N – After dropping last Thursday and Friday, this seems to have bounced off of the 20 MA and is pushing back up. It’s been up slightly, but steadily, over the last 3 days, and is now right up against that resistance (again) from early June. If this can push up through those levels, it should make for a great long, especially if it’s confirming the breakout from last Tuesday
NZD – N – This is down almost as much as AUD is up, and sitting on top of a pretty major support level. Unfortunately, at this support level there’s a lot of wicks and not a ton of candles, which gives me pause, but playing this to the middle or bottom of this range might be an option. That said, it reminds me of an upside-down JPY or GBP where it’s trending in one direction, but made a potentially temporary opposite move and is just stuck at support/resistance temporarily and is going to head back in the trending direction….. Now that I’ve thought about it for a second, I think there’s too much opportunity for a false breakdown here, so I’ll hold off for this morning and maybe revisit later
CHF – N – This pushed up and out of it’s long-term range last Friday, but since then has just based. Yesterday technically made a lower low and not a lower high, and today’s candle is tiny and sitting in the middle of yesterday’s candle. I don’t like this to either direction right now, so I’ll hold off