After making new highs over the recovery highs from early June, equities dropped on Thursday, and made a lower low on Friday, though it closed near the open. Futures are pointing to a gap up, but they’re appearing to be stalling right around that early June level. I’m going to go in with the assumption that there’s going to be a gap-up, but things are going to drop — risk-off day.
USD – N – This pushed down steadily all last week, and is now sitting at levels from January of 2019. In a risk-off day, I’d expect this to rise, but I don’t feel comfortable taking this long at this position, so I’ll hold off — If equities remain strong, look to take this short
CAD – S – This has pushed back down through those new lows that it made back on the 15th before it rallied. This actually has pushed at least to if not through the support level from early March, at the beginning of the recovery. It’s rallied a bit from the lows so far, but if it can push back down, this should be a great short
EUR – L – This is up strong, and I would’ve been in a much better position had I held on to EUR/USD. I didn’t and I can’t go back, so let’s see if I can catch some of this continued momentum
GBP – N – This is up a bit but, stuck at the resistance level that was support for May-June. This looks like it has a lot of indecision behind it right now, so I’ll hold off
Today’s Pairs
Equity Weakness
EUR/CAD – Long
EUR/AUD – Long
AUD/JPY – Short
CAD/JPY – Short
Equity Strength
EUR/USD – Long
NZD/USD – Long
EUR/CHF – Long
NZD/CAD – Long
JPY – L – This is up, and up against some resistance, and hasn’t really made any new highs, but it’s been up for the past 3 days and I’m leaning risk-off. I definitely want to look at individual charts to see if there’s any JPY opportunity
AUD – S – If I think the S&P is going to reverse after it opens, I have to think this will as well. This is up a bit today, but fully within yesterday’s candle and sitting on top of support that was the base for almost 2 months. It’s also sitting right on the 20MA. This doesn’t actually look like a great short right now, but if it pushes down, there could be a good opportunity to the next support level. I’m going to take a look at individual charts to be sure
NZD – N – This is up a good amount on the day already, and it appears that today’s candle is engulfing Fridays. I’ll maybe take a look at this if equities remain strong, but I don’t love this pattern right now — If equities stay strong, look to take this long
CHF – N – This was strong over Wednesday, Thursday and Friday last week, but has dropped pretty significantly today. Price is now sitting on top of the support level that was resistance through June and July while it was basing. If it can break these levels, in a risk-on day, this could be a good short. I’ll take a look if that’s the case — If equities stay strong look to short this