Equities ended up quite strong yesterday — finishing up 1.5% in S&P and 2.3% in the DOW. That said, they did make a new low, and not a new high. Today, futures are looking weak again, but not that weak. If we’re following the recent pattern, this should be a fairly strong risk-off day. Equities are already somewhat reflecting that, so that’s how I’m going to lean this morning.
USD – L – This just touched, or maybe just barely broke out above the range it’s been in for about 2 weeks (finally). It’s since pulled back a bit, but if it can break those highs again, I love this to the upside
CAD – N – This is somewhat starting to form a descending triangle pattern, but it doesn’t look like it’s ready to break that yet. This rallied yesterday, bringing it back to the middle-ish of it’s range and today has pushed a little higher and lower so far, but is sitting right at the open. When/if this starts to push down with conviction — breaking those levels — I’ll look at this, but not today
EUR – S/N – This is still ranging. I could potentially short this within it’s range, but it’s not my favorite. I’ll entertain that idea if I don’t like anything else to short today
Today’s Pairs
GBP/USD – Short
EUR/USD – Short
USD/JPY – Long
USD/CHF – long
GBP – S – This looks to be continuing it’s weakness after that bear rally. It is sitting near the open, but it seems to be erring to the downside, and if it can break yesterday’s low (which it already got close to today), this could run far
JPY – N – This has been ranging for about 6 days, and is sitting at the bottom of that range and looks a little weak. I’d expect this to be strong today, but that’s not the case. I don’t think, at this juncture, I want to take this long simply within the range, so I’ll wait to see if this moves to break out later today
AUD – N – This is up slightly today, but still within the base it’s been in for 6 days, and the range it’s been in for over 2 weeks. If this was closer to it’s support level, I’d look to short this within the range, but it’s closer to the middle, and has some strength right now. If this starts to push down, I’ll revisit it, but I don’t love it right now
NZD – N – This pushed down about .3%, but has since rallied back to it’s open/near the top of the base it’s in. Again, I’d expect this to be closer to the bottom today, but that’s not what’s happening. I also don’t love this to the upside, if my sentiment assumption is wrong. I’ll hold off this morning, and see how it behaves throughout the day
CHF – N – This is up pretty strong today, and I’d expect it to be. Unfortunately, though, this made a new swing high yesterday, and price today hasn’t gotten anywhere near that high today. I’ll leave this alone for now and see how it behaves later