Equities closed quite weak on Friday — finishing down nearly 3%, and while futures gapped down (which I didn’t know they could do), they’re currently up about .4%. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if today ended up being a risk-on day. I’ll lean toward that in my analysis, but I’ll keep my mind open to the possibility that things drop again and we remain risk-off.
USD – L/N – If risk-off I’m not going to look at this long initially, since I’m assuming a risk-on sentiment, but if things move the other way, this looks poised to break out soon. I think I’d want this to at least break out of yesterday’s highs (which were technically still lower than highs from about 10 (trading) days ago), but I’ll take a look to see if the patterns or numbers make sense
CAD – N – I’m slowly but surely becoming bearish CAD, but it’s not quite making the moves I need it to, to become fully bearish. This pushed lower over the last 4 days, stalling at a pretty major support level. Today, price is up, but only slightly and the candle is fully within yesterday’s. Granted, this didn’t quite reach the very bottom of the range, but it’s getting there. I’ll keep my eye on this, and look to short hopefully in the coming days
Today’s Pairs
GBP/USD – Short
GBP/CHF – Short
EUR – N – This is strong so far this morning, and has broken out of the mini-base it was in for the last 8 days, but it’s still within the range it’s been in since early-to-mid May, and is stalling out at some resistance. Because of all of the resistance at and above current price, I definitely don’t want to take this long today, I’ll look to if it gets closer to breaking out, otherwise, I think I’ll look to short this to the bottom of the range tomorrow
GBP – S – Yep, this formed the perfect bear rally that it looked like it was forming, but already broke out of that low today. It stopped at a pretty strong level of support that stopped price after it’s big drop back in March, but if it can break through that level, this could drop pretty far. I’ll take a look at individual charts to see if this makes sense anywhere
JPY – N – I was going to look to short this, given my risk-on prediction, but looking at the last 4 days, through both risk sentiments, the candles all look almost exactly the same — so I don’t think today’s sentiment would be enough to move this. Also, even if this does push further down, there are a couple of levels of support below today’s low. I’ll just hold off on this for now, and wait until it starts moving again
AUD – N – Similar to JPY, over the last 4 trading days (not including today) through both types of risk sentiment, this has 4 very similar candles. Some are down and some are up, but they’re all the same size (small). This doesn’t look ready to break to either side, so I’ll leave this alone for now, and revisit this afternoon
NZD – N – This is also ranging, and doesn’t look poised to move much right now. It is up slightly, not at 0 — it gapped down — but it’s still not very strong right now. If we are risk-off, I’d expect this to be pushing higher, but it’s really now right now. I’ll revisit this this afternoon to see if anything’s changed, but I’ll leave it alone this morning
CHF – L/N – This has been moving higher over the last 10 days, but it’s been doing so very slowly — it’s basically made the same amount of pips in these 10 days as it had back on 6/11. It has made a new high and stalled out at some resistance, but the next level of resistance just might be far enough away on an individual chart to warrant a look at this. I’ll look, and run the numbers, and only entertain this if we’re indeed risk off. I’ll look, but I won’t chase