Equities pushed through the base they’ve been in for about a week yesterday, and today, futures are pointing to another 1% (almost) down-move. So it looks like this risk-off sentiment will continue today. That said, they definitely could open lower and then rise — I’ll do my analysis assuming risk-off, but I’ll pay close attention when the markets open to see if I should shift my outlook
*Update after analysis* Equity futures “rallied” from -.8% when I started my analysis to -.55% now. I’m shifting my outlook, assuming price will gap down but rally back within the range it’s been in, so I’m going to look at NZD and CAD long since they’re at the bottom of they’re ranges and heading up and USD and CHF short since they’re the inverse.
USD – S/N – This is tough. If we are in fact in a risk off day, I’d expect this to rise, but it’s ina base that it’s been in for 10 days, and doesn’t look like it’s near ready to break out of the base. That said it is near the top of the range, but still quite a few pips away from where I’d like to get in. If JPY and CHF look worse, I’ll revisit this to the long side, but as of right now, I plan to leave this alone. Also, if equities do bounce and rally today, I’d be comfortable taking this short
CAD – L/N – This is still ranging/basing. It’s near the bottom of it’s range and up slightly, so I could maybe see myself taking this long, but yesterday it looked strong in the morning, ended up having a good amount of strength throughout the day, but closed at it’s open. I don’t want to subject myself to the false breakouts, so I’ll continue to hold off here
Today’s Pairs
USD/CAD – Short
NZD/USD – Long
CAD/CHF – Long
NZD/CHF – Long
EUR – N – EUR made a big down-move this morning, but is still well within it’s range and is now sitting on some support. I’ll continue to hold off here
GBP – N – This actually ended up closing down about .15% after looking decent yesterday morning. It’s up again today, but looks like it’s basing again? This may not be a base, though, this pushed up higher than price currently is, and it’s sitting closer to the lows, maybe this was a bear rally and price is going to drop again. Regardless, I’d need this to get back down to the lows from last Friday before I look to take this short, so I’ll leave it alone this morning
JPY – N – This is down today almost as much as it was up yesterday, and even with it’s wicks, it’s fully within yesterday’s candle. It’s too close to some resistance levels for me to take this long, even if the sentiment holds true, and similarly, there’s a lot of support if this were to drop more today. I don’t love this right now, so I’ll hold off
AUD – N – This is up only slightly today, and within yesterday’s candle. I’d expect this to drop more significantly, but it doesn’t seem to be happening. Similar to yesterday, I could maybe see shorting this to the bottom of the range if it breaks out of the day’s lows/lows from Tuesday. That might be my only play of the day, we’ll see
NZD – L/N – This dropped a lot yesterday, and as I expected, stalled out at that support level. Today is up slightly, but not much, and has pulled back a good amount from the highs already. I like this to the short side, if it can break out of the range’s lows, but it’s up a good amount today, so I don’t foresee that happening. That said, I’ll keep my eye on this throughout the day to see
CHF – S/N – This is down slightly and at the top of it’s range. Again, I’d assume this would be pushing higher with the sentiment but it’s not happening. I’m shifting my outlook to risk-on in the short term, and going to see if I can play these currencies within these ranges, so I’ll see if I can short this just to the bottom of it’s range