Equity futures are pointing at a sizable gap up when markets open soon, but this always gives me a bit of pause because often, after a gap-up, price actually begins to decline on the day. Because of that, I don’t feel comfortable trying to figure out the day’s sentiment right now, so I’ll take the baskets at face value.
USD – S/N – This is still basing for the most part, and while I’m overall pretty neutral here, it is down on the day and at the top of the base. There could be opportunity to short this to the bottom of it’s base, especially if equities rise and sentiment is indeed risk-on
CAD – N – Last Friday, this technically made a new swing high, and the highs and lows have been moving upward, but this is still in that range, and there’s a pretty strong resistance level that this hasn’t been able to break. I’ll continue to wait on this until it breaks out in one direction or the other (in the coming days, I may look to short this within the range, too, we’ll see)
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Long
AUD/JPY – Long
EUR – N – This has been steadily moving up over the last 6 days, and made a new swing high on Friday. Today’s candle is down a bit, and fully within Friday’s candle. My outlook has turned mostly bullish on this, so I’m going to hold off on trading this, at least for this morning
GBP – N – This has definitely broken to the downside, and I’m comfortable bearish here. That said, today’s candle is up a decent amount. I don’t want to short this with price being up so much right now, so I’ll hold off this morning and revisit this afternoon
JPY – S/N – Similar to USD, this has been ranging for a while, has dropped quite a bit today, and is falling from the top of it’s range, so there’s some room between current price and the bottom of the range. There is another small level of resistance between current price and that next big resistance level, so I won’t chase, but I want to see if there’s any opportunity here
AUD – L/N – This hasn’t quite broken out yet, but it’s at the top of the base, and potentially could, especially if we’re in a risk-off day. I’ll take a look
NZD – N – As of right now, I’m leaving this neutral, but I want to look at this to the up-side. Friday, it dropped and made a new swing low, but the argument can be made that that continued to stay within it’s range that it’s been in since late March. If that’s the case, then this looks like a good long opportunity, but at the same time, that could’ve been the move that starts this on a downtrend, and today’s candle is just a rally. It hasn’t even broken out above yesterday’s candle, so I’m holding off mainly for that reason, but I’ll revisit this afternoon and hope for an opportunity to take this long
CHF – N – Similar to EUR, but this has actually made a new high with today’s candle. It has pulled back since then, though, and is down on the day, far enough that I don’t want to touch it. At least not this morning. Maybe things will change by this afternoon