We’re “social distancing” ourselves from the rest of the world because we’re in Coronavirus mode right now. I say that to say my typical routine is out of whack and it’s 9 now and I’m just getting started. If we are going to be stuck here for a full week or more, I need to be sure to stick to my routine — especially so that things transition back to normal better once this is over.
USD [L] – This is really looking like the currency of safety right now — I’m definitely going to look for opportunities to take this long
CAD [N] – I mentioned yesterday that while it was a down-day, it made a higher high and a higher low. This is up a bit today, but the highs aren’t even as high as Friday’s. This looks like it made a trend-reversing move to the upside, but I’ll need some confirmation before I take this long — and if it’s going to stay weak, I need to see some confirmation of that as well; so, I’m going to leave this alone for today
Today’s Pairs
AUD/USD – Short
AUD/JPY – Short
GBP/USD – Short
GBP/JPY – Short
EUR [N] – This has been strong over the last couple of weeks, but today it’s down. That’s not to say this isn’t strong anymore — it could just be gearing up for another large up-move — but at this time, I don’t want to take it long, and I’m not going to short a currency I’m bullish on so I’m going to leave this alone
GBP [S] – This pushed to new lows yesterday but closed near the open. Today, though, it’s down again and looks to be continuing its weakness. It had been basing/ranging in the past, so I was hesitant to trade this, but now that it’s showing some actual signs to the down side, I’m comfortable shorting this
JPY [L/N] – This actually looks to be remaining in that high-base it’s been in for a few days (even though the size of the base is massive, it still looks like a high-base to me). Today it’s up a little bit, but it’s not breaking out of those highs; that said, it’s also not pushing nearly as low as the bottom of the base, which suggests to me some remaining strength. I’m cautiously optimistic here. I’ll look for an opportunity, but I won’t chase
AUD [S] – This is still showing a lot of weakness, but it’s been a struggle trading it because it’s making all-time lows and there’s no real way (at least for me) to gauge how low it can go. I’ll look at a couple AUD charts again, but until I can come up with a clear target, I might wait this out, which is unfortunate, because it looks extremely weak right now. I’ll see what I can do
NZD [N] – This has, weirdly, been up over each of the last 3 trading days, but is making lower lows and lower highs. This still feels bearish but it’s had some strength behind it. It hasn’t done anything to make me think this is reversing to the bull side, so I’ll just wait until there’s more confirmation to the short side to get back in to NZD
CHF [N] – Similar to EUR, this has shown a lot of strength, but is down a bit today. I’ll leave it alone for now and look to trade it again when it swings back to the upside