I’m not sure why I still look at equities — A) when I do my analysis in the AM, the markets aren’t open yet so I’m not working off of current data and B) Currencies haven’t shown the same type of correlation with equities that I was taught/shown/told they would. I think it is valuable to know, so I’ll continue to look, but I’ll give less weight to what it’s doing when I do RSW
Yesterday, equities finished pretty strong, but didn’t quite reach the previous day’s highs. Today, futures are down, so we may have another drop today. We’ll see
USD [S] – This half of my analysis seems correct. This has been weak since the beginning of the months, and is still showing signs of weakness. It is up against some support, but it’s pushed through in the past, I’ll look for opportunities to short this today
CAD [S] – This is on it’s third down-day in a row, and is finally showing some signs of being committed to a direction. This pushed lower than it currently is, and is now sitting on some support (though it’s not the strongest level), so I’d be comfortable shorting this if a patter arises
EUR [L/N] – After a lot of indecision on Tuesday, and a down-day yesterday, this looks like it has some strength again as it’s up quite a bit on the day. That said, it’s not really showing signs of continuing the up-move from the end of February at this point, so I’m cautious about it. If there’s nothing else that I’d be comfortable taking long today, I’ll look at this, otherwise, I’ll probably leave this alone
Today’s Pairs
USD/CHF – Short
CAD/CHF – Short
GBP/USD – Long
GBP/CAD – Long
EUR/USD – Long
EUR/CAD – Long
USD/JPY – Short
CAD/JPY – Short
GBP [L/N] – I don’t want to get sucked into the GBP trap again, but I just might. I’m more bullish on this at this time than EUR because it’s coming off of a large down-move, and this has been ranging, so the up-move it’s been on for these last 3 days looks to be right within the range it’s been in for so long. It is up against some resistance, so if I play this, it’ll be on a breakout
JPY [L/N] – This looks like it’s returning to strength after the big down-move yesterday, but the highs aren’t as high as yesterday’s. This isn’t my favorite “long” at the moment, but if equities are in-fact weak today, that might bode well for this. I’ll keep my eye out for potential long opportunities, but I won’t be too eager
AUD [N] – I may not ever take another AUD trade again. In all seriousness, though, After 3 big up-days, following the weakness in equities (seemingly), today’s dropped significantly and given back all of it’s gains from yesterday, despite equity futures being down. If anything I could see shorting this, but really, I don’t want to touch it at this point. I’ll revisit probably next week
NZD [N] – This looks to be in a low-base and while today price is down, it’s technically made a higher high and a higher low than yesterday. I’ll need more confirmation to the downside to short this, and a serious trend-reversing signal to take this long, so I’m going to sit out of it for now
CHF [L] – This looks to be in a bit of a high-base as well, but today’s candle is quite strong and it’s up near the highs it reached at the end of February. It’s pulled back a little on the day, but not much, and it’s near some record highs, so I’d be comfortable taking this long