S&P futures are up again today, and so far, USD is down. It’s looking as though maybe currencies will react to the market more predictably, but it’s probably too soon to say that for sure. I’ll take the baskets at face value for the most part today
USD [N] – It’s down again today, but isn’t really showing signs of reversing the trend. I don’t want to take it long since it’s down and I don’t want to short it since I’m not sue how far it’s actually going to fall, so I’m going to leave it alone
CAD [N] – Another day of indecision (though it’s actually down a little right now). I still don’t feel comfortable taking this in either direction, so I’m going to leave it alone
Today’s Pairs
EUR/AUD – Short
AUD/JPY – Long
EUR [S] – This might be at the bottom of the move it’s going to make, but it is down pretty strong so I’d like to short this. It’s at a fairly weak level of support, and it could push a little further if it’s following the shorter-term downtrend, so I’ll look for something to play long against this
GBP [N] – It’s a good thing I didn’t take this long yesterday. It never broke out and as of today, it’s down slightly but still within that tight range. I’m going to continue to leave this alone until it moves.
JPY [S] – This is up against some support, but it’s moving down and showing signs of continued weakness. We’ll see if there’s anything I can pair this against
AUD [L] – I’m cautiously long here. It rallied, but is up against some resistance right now. It has pushed through this level a few times, but is having trouble closing there. Currently, though, it is above those previous closed highs, so I believe it could continue up. Either way, this is the best long I’ve found, and I like EUR and JPY to the downside, so maybe this will be worth taking on their weakness rather than AUD’s strength. We’ll see what individual charts look like
NZD [N] – This spiked big last night on the back of some news, but I can’t say for sure whether that move is sustainable. It was showing signs of weakness in the past, so we’ll see if this was a trend-changing spike, or if it was a flash and it’ll reverse back to the downside. Regardless, it’ll take a couple days for that to shake out, so I’m going to leave this alone today
CHF [N] – I’m slightly bearish here, but I don’t think I want to trade this now (I’m more bearish EUR and JPY). After all of the strength it showed, it pulled back and over the last 5 trading days, has essentially based. It’s up against some support right now, so if it’s able to push through that level, I’ll like this to the downside. I’ll revisit this afternoon and see how it’s behaving