I missed trading/analyzing yesterday due to travel for Superbowl, so I wasn’t really able to see how the markets reacted when they opened. Looking now, though, it looks like it hasn’t recovered from the couple down-days it had last week, but it’s not pushing lower either. Premarket, price is up considerably, so I’m going to assume this is a risk-on day
USD [L/N] – This was up a decent amount yesterday, and it looks like it wants to be up again today. Over the last couple of weeks, this hasn’t really been negatively correlated with the S&P like we assume it would be — it’s been more positively correlated, so I think this may increase today
Today’s Pairs
USD/JPY – Long
GBP/JPY – Long
CAD [N] – This was down, pretty big, over the last 4 trading days, but it’s up against some support, and today’s candle is showing a lot of indecision. I don’t really want to short this at the level of support it’s at, but I don’t want to go long here either — there’s no breakout level or clear pullback that I see. I’ll leave this alone for today and see how it shakes out going forward
EUR [N] – On Friday, this exploded out above the highs of the descending channel it was in, but has been on a bit of a pullback since. It’s not quite reaching the highs of that channel again (as support), so I think this has potential to continue higher in the coming days, but since it’s down today, I don’t want to take that shot, so I’ll wait to see if it turns around
GBP [L/N] – This had a nice breakout last week, but it has since pulled back to within the range it was in. Today looks like it’s another up-day, but it’s up against that level of resistance again, and it’s hard to tell whether it’ll breakout like that again. I’ll look at this long today, but only if I can play a breakout
JPY [S/N] – I’m having a hard time figuring JPY out right now. It had been steadily moving up since the middle of January, but the last couple of days, it’s pulled back. It’s currently down on the day, but sitting near some pretty strong support. I would expect this to continue down, if equities are going to be up, but it hasn’t followed that super closely over the last few months. I’ll look to short this if there’s a breakout, but I’m going to try not to chase anything
AUD [N] – This looks like it’s starting to recoup some of those large losses that it received last week, but is currently at some resistance that has acted as support. I would assume this is just a pullback before it moves down again, but these 2 last up-candles are quite large, so it’s hard to say. I’m going to leave this alone for today and see how it behaves the rest of the week
NZD [N] – This rolled over and made some new lows, but it ran into some support and has begun to base. I’ll leave this alone for now until it shows whether it wants to head back up or break lower
CHF [N] – This had a lot of strength over the course of the last few weeks, even breaking out to new 6-month highs, but it’s pulling back as of right now. Price is sitting at some support, though, so I could definitely see this breaking higher again in the coming days, but not today, so I’ll wait until I get more confirmation to pull the trigger here