Yesterday, S&P was up premarket, but didn’t actually increase that much on the day. Today, it’s up again, premarket, but less than yesterday so I’m not sure what that means. Regardless, I’m not sure how strong the correlations with the S&P are right now, so I’m going to take the charts at face value
USD [S] – I’ll look at the charts to see if I see any entry signals, but I’m not actually super bearish on this right now. I think it has potential to head down a decent amount, but it’s just not really making those moves. I’ts been down-trending for a couple of weeks, but is in a bit of a base right now. It’s technically up on the day, but only by .06%, which could potentially swing to the downside. That’s what I’d be looking for if I were to pull the trigger in USD. We’ll see what happens
CAD [N] – This is a tough one. It’s made another down-day, but the down candles are getting smaller over the course of the last 4 days. I don’t hate my bullish outlook, it’s just not coming to fruition right now. I don’t want to short this, still, unless something big moves it down, so I’ll leave it alone until I have a more clear idea of the actual direction it’s heading
Today’s Pairs
EUR/CHF – Short
GBP/USD – Long
EUR/GBP – Short
USD/CHF – Short
AUD/CHF – Short
GBP/AUD – Long
EUR [S] – This started to look like it was headed up, but ultimately closed lower yesterday. It’s already down again today, too, though not by much. It’s below the bottom of the descending triangle still and, with the candles that make up that triangle, it’s the wicks that make it up, and the last 2 candles have actually closed below that level. I think this is a very bearish sign, and I hope to find something that looks equally as bullish to pair against it
GBP [L/N] – I’m cautious about this. I’m almost comfortable going long because it looks like it could be the beginning of a rally. This has been down over the last week, but up prior to that, and was basing strongly prior to that. The level that it reached on this most recent down-move is the same level as the low of the base, so it makes sense that there’d be a bit of a bounce here. I’ll look for something that looks good in the short-term — 25 – 30 pips on the upside — and see if I can do anything with it
JPY [N] – This doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere anytime soon. It’s in that somewhat low base, but it’s moving very slowly, and in very small increments. Sentiment says that this should be going down, but it’s not really reacting to that. I think if S&P makes a strong move up, it’ll head down, but the moves in the equities haven’t been very strong. I’ll leave this alone for now, unless something big moves it in the coming hours
AUD [S/N] – While this has pushed through some resistance, it didn’t do so convincingly, and today, it hasn’t moved at all. I’m more bearish here, though, since it’s not showing any follow through on the breakout, and it’s at the top of a range. If a chart looks really good, I’ll pull the trigger here (similar to USD), but I don’t want to chase anything
NZD [N] – This broke out to new highs again, but has since stalled out and is down a bit today. I don’t want to short this, as I’m not sure how deep this pullback will be, and I’m still bullish on this, so I’m just going to leave it alone
CHF [L] – This pulled back a bit yesterday, but stalled out right at that upper trend-line. Today, price is up a little already, so I’m comfortable going long here