Long, fun, vacation. But, as far as trading goes, it was a lot longer than I wanted to go without looking at the markets (I checked once, but didn’t see anything.. My analysis was pretty weak). Getting back after it today, though!
The S&P has continued to climb higher, it didn’t base as my coach assumed. This suggests a risk-on environment, which I can already somewhat see in USD. I’ll keep that in mind while doing RSW.
USD [S/N] – I’m neutral because USD is on an up-day today, but overall, I’m bearish. I won’t pull the trigger today, necessarily (unless I set an entry order to trigger overnight or something), but price is currently sitting at an area that’s both acted as support and resistance in the past. I think it’ll reverse off of this short rebound and continue down in the near future. If I see a setup, as I said, I’d be comfortable setting an entry order to short USD (maybe experiment with limit orders?)
CAD [N] – This chart isn’t telling me a whole lot today. It had been making lower lows and lower highs for the last month-and-a-half, but has had 4 up-days and is stalled out at some resistance (somewhat). This high is still lower than the previous one, so I could see it continuing down, but this could also be a reversal back to the upside. I’ll check on this again later and see if anything changes throughout the day today/tomorrow, but I’m neutral right now
Today’s Pairs
AUD/NZD – Short
NZD/JPY – Long
NZD/CHF – Long
GBP/NZD – Short
GBP/CHF – Short
GBP/CAD – Short
EUR [S/N] – Similar to USD, I’m overall bearish on EUR (it’s in a descending triangle pattern, though not one that looks like the breakout will be huge) but it’s on a pretty strong up-day. The high it’s currently at still isn’t as high as the previous one, so the pattern still is in tact, so I just have to wait for price to actually reverse. We’ll see, maybe this will be another place where I set an entry order that I expect to hit later in the day/tomorrow
GBP [S/N] – I don’t know what to say about GBP. It broke out of that range to new highs, based, had a nice big move, but has given all of that back and is sitting at that level where it based. I’m leaning toward being bearish on this, especially in the short-term, but I’d have to see signs in an individual chart of price continuing in that direction
JPY [S] – This is another where I’m neutral because of an up-day but I’m overall bearish. Strangely, JPY is up today, despite the S&P continuing higher (that said, the S&P isn’t moving much higher today, it just had over the last couple of days). This moved to new lows, broke through some support, and is currently basing (though it’s only 2 candles). I like this to the downside more than the upside, but not necessarily today. We’ll see
AUD [S] – I don’t have a whole lot to say about this chart overall, but the last couple of days, this has been down, and is on a pretty strong down-day today. It’s already moved .33%, which gives me a little bit of pause, but it’s already broken through this level of support once and it has a good amount of room to go before it reaches the next level of resistance. It might not happen today, but I’m bearish here (and it looks better than other shorts I see)
NZD [L/N] – This has made higher highs and has moved up steadily for the last month, the MA’s have crossed up and are still sloping upward as well. That said, it’s reached a level of resistance that had been support in the past, and looks to be stalling at that level. It’s on 3 down days, so there’s a level I’d like it to break before I’m bullish again. Maybe tomorrow
CHF [S/N] – While this did push through some resistance in the past, it didn’t do so convincingly, so I still see this as being in that descending triangle pattern. It’s currently on a couple of up-days , but is stalled out at some resistance. I don’t love this today, but maybe there’s opportunity to set an entry order?
**overall, most currencies’ baskets are sitting at levels of support or resistance in the opposite direction of the way I’m anticipating them going. I’ll look at a couple of pairs based on these, and I’ll see how they’re doing vs JPY to make my decision, too. It might just be a 0 trade day