The S&P is down a bit today, but for all intents and purposes, equities are continuing to hit all-time highs (the DOW is up a little today). Again, this should signify a risk-off sentiment in FX, but that’s not necessarily what’s happening. I’ll keep this in mind, but for the most part, I’m going to trade what the charts are showing
USD [S] – Hasn’t moved much today, is down slightly, but, essentially, no movement. That said, the last few candles have signaled a down move, and it’s moving closer to that lower trendline again. Couple this with the fact that we should be in a risk-off sentiment means I want to short this
CAD [S] – Again, there was almost no movement in CAD overall, but it’s still making lower highs and stalling out at that level of support. The 20MA has crossed under the 50, which is another sign that this would be a good short, but it would ideally push through support. I don’t know that I’ll actually pair this up with anything today, since it hasn’t moved (this is also the case with USD), but I’m more bearish than bullish
EUR [L] – This is still ranging, but is moving up after hitting the lower end of the range, and still has a ways to go before getting to the top of it’s range. This has also moved a little bit already today, so hopefully I can find something good to pair against it
GBP [S/N] – This did break out of the tight high base that it was in, but it didn’t quite get as high as the previous swing high/resistance level. It’s pulling back a bit, and is still in that high base pattern. I’m cautiously bearish on this, though, because it has a bit of a ways to go before reaching the bottom of the range. That said, it’s on an up-day, so it may not be a good short until tomorrow/later in the week. I’ll glance at a GBP chart, but I don’t think I’ll pull the trigger anywhere until price reverses. **Update** In the FX room, because of the recent up-move (and I’m assuming Brexit news that I don’t know about), they want to take this long. They are also awaiting a breakout, which, there’s no telling when that may happen, but maybe this isn’t the best short opportunity
JPY [N] – Equities are saying that this should be going down, but it’s on an up-day today and is still in a low base. We’ll see if this moves anywhere today, but I’m not going to pair it against anything for right now
AUD [L/N] – I’m in an AUD trade right now, long. In it’s basket, it’s on a down day, today, but yesterday was an up-day and it isn’t showing signs of getting as low as yesterday’s open. As long as I’m in this trade, I don’t want to trade this long, but I like where I’m at, and I’m going to let it play out. I may look to take this long again later in the week once I close this trade
NZD [L] – I didn’t catch these myself, but it sounds like the RBNZ is making moves that could potentially cause NZD to increase. As far as it’s basket goes, It’s been in a range for quite a while, reached the top of that range last week, and has since pulled back. That said, the pullback wasn’t very deep, so I can also see a case for this being long (esp. if the fundamentals are there). It’s better to buy the dips here, not breakouts, so we’ll see what we can find
CHF [N] – This is on an up-day, but it’s still in that descending triangle pattern. I don’t want to trade it today necessarily, but if it heads down over the next couple of days, I don’t need it to break below support as there’ a ways for it to run before it even reaches support. I think these are good signs to short this later
Since I’m currently in an AUD trade, and AUD is the only currency that looks like it’s made a down-move today (to pair against EUR), I don’t think I’m going to explicitly look at any new pairs. I’ll keep my eye on the baskets and see if anything ends up moving throughout the day.