Both the DOW and the S&P are up this morning, though it’s only a little. This suggests that we’re in a risk-on environment, but that hasn’t necessarily been true in the FX markets. Something to keep in mind, though, when doing the rest of my analysis. USD, JPY = Long; AUD, NZD, EUR = Short
USD [N] – This is ups .25% on the day, but it’s been in a range for the last few days. I doubt this will move too much more, unless news comes out, plus, I don’t see any clear indication of which direction it’ll move, so I’m going to leave this alone for today
CAD [N] – This is also up on the day, but it’s coming on the heels of a period where this looked to be a great short. It bounced off of the level of support that I hoped it’d break through, though and moved higher. This could be temporary, but either way, it’s not showing signs of continuing higher and it’s not breaking through support, so I’m out of this currency for today
EUR [L] – I’m not super bullish on this currency, but it did bounce off of support and move a little higher — staying within the range it’s been in for about 2 months. The top of the range is about 90 pips away, still, so there’s room for it to go. We’ll just see if there’s anything that makes sense to short against this
Today’s Pairs
EUR/AUD – Long
AUD/JPY – Short
EUR/NZD – Long
NZD/JPY – Short
GBP [N] – Up today, but still in the high base. I’m not going to touch this today
JPY [L?] – This pushed up through the top of the low base that it’s been in for the last 3+ weeks. There’s some previous levels of resistance at the price it’s currently at, but in the short-term, it looks like it could be a long play. I’ll check some charts, but it’s not my first choice. We’ll see if it does anything
AUD [S] – This has dropped pretty significantly today, and has still not quite reached the bottom of the range it’s been in. I can’t say how much further it’ll drop, but there is room for it to go. We’ll see how it’s chart looks against EUR and JPY
NZD [S] – Despite thinking this was a short yesterday as well, I still took this long against USD. I got excited about something and decided to abandon the rest of my analysis to try to get into a trade. That’s neither here nor there, though. After the big up-move it made yesterday on the back of some news, price has reversed at resistance and is heading back down. There’s still a good 60 pips before it gets back to yesterday’s open, so I like this to the short side
CHF [N] This has broken out to highs higher than they’ve made in the last month, but still not quite as high as they were back in August/September. This is at the top of the upper trend-line, technically, but it’s still in that descending triangle pattern. I don’t want to take this in either direction today, so I’m going to leave it alone unless I see something move